“Now, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning” -Winston Churchill.
Is it too late to stop World War III? Has it already started, and are we just going through the early stages of proxy wars? The weapons of war aren’t just over there, as they were in previous wars when standing armies fought in kinetic engagements. Today, we can be impacted by a weapon of war tied to a keyboard on a computer from any corner of the world. While you might not see troops ever rolling into your town on tanks and armored vehicles, the fallout and repercussions of a large global conflict will inevitably be felt by you no matter where you live. In this blog, I’ll explore the possibility that it’s too late to stop World War III, help you to understand it through current theories, but most importantly, I’ll clue you in at the end to solid, tangible things you can do right now; so even if World War III is unavoidable, you can survive it. You’ll want to stick around to the end to hear about that.
POSSIBLE TO PLAUSIBLE
The current global situation could devolve into a third World War in more than a few ways. Let me just throw out four possible scenarios: One, a nuclear-armed Iran threatens Israel, prompting U.S. intervention and escalating into a global conflict with Russia, which probably provided Iran the nuclear material it needed in exchange for support in Ukraine. OR, an unexpected attack on the West’s infrastructure, information systems, and possibly even satellites by Eurasian states leads to massive disruption, chaos, mutual accusations, and global military mobilization and counterstrikes. OR, China’s invasion of Taiwan, met with U.S. intervention, escalates into a conflict involving multiple countries throughout Eurasia and Oceania, sea battles, land incursions, and possibly tactical nuclear weapons. North Korea and Russia support China, and Europe is warned to stay out, resulting in a prolonged, intensifying conflict. OR, the U.S. becomes so politically divided that it is forced to withdraw from the world stage. NATO and the G7 lose cohesion, allowing authoritarian leaders to seize territories globally in a power grab, turning the world into a live version of the board game Risk. BRICS dominates the world and establishes a new order to replace Western hegemony.
That’s just four possible scenarios, but I’ll be the first to admit there are many more we could list. Now, there have always been scenarios. In the last century, these scenarios were dominated by conflict with the Soviets or random acts of terror from state-sponsored terrorists. So, what makes these different? The first thing distinguishing these new scenarios from the old is their sheer volume. There are more ways now for everything to unravel in the biggest imaginable way than there were in the past. Hollywood doesn’t have to dig deep to make up villains, space invaders, predators, or time-traveling Terminators because there’s plenty of real-life drama to write scripts about. Second, there’s the real possibility we could see several of the scenarios play out all at once, leading to fires everywhere instead of one big explosion somewhere. What was once just remote possibilities has moved to plausible, tangible events that countries are now taking measures to protect themselves against.
Let me state this before we move to the next point: I think it’s important to acknowledge the gravity of the moment we now find ourselves living in. Clearly, the relative peace we’ve enjoyed for the last 30 years is gone. We’re living on a knife’s edge with multiple real possibilities that could play out. That does not mean our fate is sealed to all-out war, but let’s be honest: things could quickly shift one way or another very rapidly. And this is why we do what we do as preppers.
POWER TRANSITION THEORY
To understand the current geopolitical landscape and the most likely scenario that will play out in the coming years, we need to discuss the power transition theory. This theory, developed during the Cold War, explains global power dynamics and potential conflicts between states. It posits that major conflicts are most likely when a rising power approaches or surpasses the dominant power in economic or military capabilities. This theory is particularly relevant as Western influence and power seem to be waning in the face of a rising China and a defiant Russia and Iran. The theory suggests that these shifts in power dynamics increase the potential for conflict as the established order is challenged by emerging powers.
Power dynamics are shifting worldwide. One way this is happening is by old leaders and old world orders being potentially replaced in the near future. As old leadership pushes the current geopolitical strategies, power shifts could become more extreme. Putin and Xi are 71 years old, and Trump and Biden are still older. These leaders have an urgency to force their policies and world vision. Those waiting in the wings to assume control when they pass could have more extreme agendas or could radically alter course when they assume leadership. Also, the power vacuum created whenever any one of these aged leaders passes could suck their respective country into civil unrest. When a superpower even temporarily recedes from the influence it holds over the world, the remaining superpowers can be emboldened into sparking conflicts or seizing territories, resources, or assets as they realign their long-term objectives.
The world’s march towards conflict is increasingly fueled by a desperate competition for resources driven by economic imperatives and environmental changes. Countries like Russia, China, and the United States are aggressively pursuing land and resources in the newly accessible polar regions. Meanwhile, due to heat-induced crop failures, India faces mounting challenges in feeding its population. The ongoing war in Ukraine further strains global grain supplies while OPEC+ maintains control over oil prices. A clandestine fleet of ships secretly distributes Russian oil worldwide in defiance of sanctions. These geopolitical maneuvers underscore the critical role of resources such as oil and minerals, which are essential for both economic prosperity and military strength. Competition for these finite resources intensifies as rising powers seek to bolster their capabilities, shaping global power dynamics and driving potential conflicts. There’s clearly an out-of-balance shifting power when it comes to resources and future resources.
This Power Transition Theory views the international system as a hierarchy, with a dominant power at the top, followed by great powers, middle powers, and smaller states. As rising powers gain strength, they often seek to challenge the status quo established by the dominant power and its affiliate order, policies, and peace-keeping organizations. The theory highlights the instability and potential for conflict during the transition period when a rising power’s capabilities approach those of the dominant power. This is especially true if the rising power is dissatisfied with the current international system and desires to change it to reflect its own interests and values. Historical examples, such as the rise of Germany before World War I and Japan before World War II, illustrate how shifts in the balance of power can lead to major conflicts, a concern that is now echoed in discussions about the United States, Europe versus China and Russia in the 21st century.
Countries worldwide are aligning themselves with their preferred future superpowers, and these leading nations are eagerly accepting the support. North Korea is aligning closely with Russia and has announced plans to send troops to support Russian forces in the Donetsk region of occupied Ukraine. China and Russia have entered into several mutually beneficial agreements and secret deals which exclude the West. Meanwhile, several Middle Eastern countries are playing both sides of the tension between Russia and the United States to maximize their profits through favorable deals or by turning a blind eye to problematic factions within their borders. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, and other countries are planning to join under the organization’s “open door policy.” Additionally, military-ruled nations in Africa are trading their mineral resources for weapons to maintain their authoritarian grip on power. This trend of global realignment is clear as nations declare their positions in the ongoing international struggle. From the power transition theory viewpoint, there’s no denying that powers are shifting and that scales are swinging wildly out of balance. Old is being replaced by new, and at least one superpower will rise to instigate a greater conflict, implode, or be moved to some act of desperation.
THE QUESTIONS WE’RE ASKING
Right now, we are asking ourselves which scenario is most likely to play out: Taiwan invasion, cyber attack on infrastructure, Russian expansionism, Arctic resource grab, Middle East conflict, Nuclear or EMP, and so forth, but those are the wrong questions. Those are just the scenarios that governments prepare themselves against. The fact is, we’re likely to see a little of all of those scenarios occurring simultaneously. It’s possible there may not be one source of ignition, one massive and intense fire, but many. It’s possible there won’t be one massive explosion, but hundreds of smaller fires that are probably already lit and smoldering now.
So, we should be asking ourselves: Will it blow up in one big punctuating event? Will it just smolder as it has been doing with the occasional brief flare-up? Will one or more major power players collapse, implode, or have a significant change in leadership by death, assassination, economic collapse, or uprising? We don’t know the answers to those questions, but we should watch them closely. We do know that combined, they can drag economies and a country’s stability down.
Let’s accept that a future global war is inevitable. Wars throughout history and into the present have been driven by various motives, from religious beliefs and territorial expansion to resource acquisition and the pursuit of power. These motivations have persisted across millennia and will continue in our collective future. The pursuit of power remains a potent force driving wars, fueled by leaders’ ambitions and the ardent support of their followers. Despite hopes for a peaceful world post-Cold War, the enduring reality is that warfare continues due to ingrained human instincts, ensuring that the specter of future conflicts remains ever-present.
At City Prepping, we feel we’re already in the beginning, potentially middle stages of this new World War. There doesn’t appear to be anything immediately on the horizon that might divert the world from its trajectory that bends toward a larger, more explosive conflict. If we’re being honest, this isn’t going to go away very soon. Again, the questions we should be asking are more concerned with the form of this growing future conflict and are less about what it will look like when it comes to fruition.
SOLUTION MINDSET
So, if you know the hurricane is coming on a direct path toward you, do you set up a lawn chair in your front yard and watch it come in, or do you take measures to ensure your safety and your survival to the day after it passes? Do you batten down the hatches and check your rations, or do you throw a party? You should plug in known solutions that are effective at increasing your odds of surviving the event before the event is upon you. What can you do when the event is a World War? Well, you have to understand how that can impact you. During the first two World Wars, it meant boots on the ground, perhaps trampling through your vineyards and farms, robbing you of resources, killing, and pillaging. It doesn’t necessarily mean that today. All the armies of Europe and Asia…could not by force take a drink from the Ohio River or make a track on the Blue Ridge in the trial of a thousand years.
Today, you’re most likely to be impacted by cyber-attacking the other preemptively or in retaliation. So, you know that cyberattacks will be on your nation’s infrastructure, financial networks, citizen cyber and identity security, and so forth. Your solutions are to protect your online presence and have ulterior means of providing necessary infrastructure: energy, food, water, shelter, medicine, and so forth. In scenarios where unconventional weapons such as EMPs or biological agents may be employed, readiness includes knowing how to effectively shelter in place for extended periods, maintaining sufficient reserves of essential supplies, and having well-defined bug-out and evacuation plans. You know that your nation engaging in war at any level will drain resources away from citizens and divert them to the military-industrial complex. That will weaken your economy. The prep against that is utilizing your preps in your daily life, rotating through them, reaping the cost-benefit, and beating inflation. Being proactive in your preparations enhances your personal resilience and contributes to your overall community resilience in the face of potential disruptions. By planning and adapting to potential threats now, individuals and communities can better mitigate the impacts of global instability and ensure a more secure future, regardless of the challenges that may arise.
Temporarily bringing your neighborhood offline and withdrawing from the global and national community, a circling the wagons sort of approach, may be your best chance of survival when the rest of the world is engulfed in flaming chaos, but is your community, network, and local infrastructure capable of going it alone? Are you in an area where you would even want to help or be a part of the greater community if SHTF happens? What are you doing now to lay the groundwork for this future possibility?
REAL SOLUTIONS
Just as your country is probably preparing for multiple geopolitical scenarios, so should you. Minimally, ensure you have three weeks of food, water, and medicine on hand to reduce your exposure to the disruptions of a World War. I have videos on that, which I will link to in the comments and description section below. Food security may seem rather trivial and meaningless when facing the daunting prospect of a global war, but let me assure you, it’s a little work now that will pay you great dividends later. If your grid goes down for whatever reason, you know you’ll have at least 3-weeks to survive while stability is restored or to help you get to whatever the next phase of your life is going to be.
The simple fact is that the more independent and self-sufficient you become, even in small ways, the less susceptible you are to the fallout from global conflicts. I’ll be honest: I think there are more potential flare-ups smoldering worldwide than ever. I think a future World-involved conflict is unavoidable, but how you meet the challenges of the future is largely in your control right now. Every minute you spend prepping for an uncertain future will pay you back in hours and days when things fall apart.
As always, Stay Safe Out There.
